I was just checking eBay to see that a sealed copy of Ico (PS2) has skyrocketed in value recently. An auction just ended for $106.75, and there are several active BINs at just under $100.

My sealed copy came from a Sears clearance just at the very end of Ico’s shelf life for a cool $9.97 and it’s now one of the treasures of my collection. At the time, my friend had just introduced me to the game (months before Shadow of the Colossus’s release) and I was instantly enamored with it. I kept it because of a collector’s instinct that it was going to be a classic.

When I checked the value of a sealed copy a year ago, it was around $65.

Ico’s value has been rising steadily, nearly doubling over the past year. What’s most remarkable is that it seems to be gaining “classic” status on its own merit, through word of mouth on the ‘net. Although Sony’s media blitz for Shadow of the Colossus certainly turned a lot of people on to Ico, that was two years ago, and shouldn’t affect what happens in 2008.

(Chart taken from Videogamepricecharts.com)

Team ICO have already announced that they have a PS3 title in the works, although they’re keeping it under tight wraps until it’s ready. (Hit the link for a teaser screenshot.) I predict that Ico’s price will spike even higher once Team ICO’s PS3 title is out (barring a reprint or re-release, of course).

JJ over at Video Game Price Charts has put up an interesting (albeit self-explanatory) post based on an idea that I submitted to them — to track Shin Megami Tensei Nocturne and Digital Devil Saga’s price crash after the recent Atlus reprints.

Here’s what Nocturne looks like, and it ain’t pretty:

For the record, I don’t think Amazon ever got the reprints of Digital Devil Saga — only Gamestop did. And to make matters more interesting, Gamestop is only selling the game as gutted and used, a process that they called “newsed” — new product converted to used. This means you can buy a new sealed Nocturne but NOT DDS; I believe means something interesting is going to happen in the long term: Sealed copies of DDS will keep a very high price while Nocturne’s is not as high, because new/sealed copies of DDS are generally not available, even now.

If you’ve read my previous posts, I still think Nocturne’s price will go up once the reprinted copies have evaporated. There’s a precedent for this — both Disgaea and Persona 2 have seen slow price growth even after reprints.

The highly-recommended blog over at VideoGamePriceCharts.com once again has another stimulating post, this time recommending readers to be liberal in their late-gen PS2 game buying.

To put it simply, late generation games on every console tend to become collector’s items. VideoGamePriceCharts name drops Dragon Warrior IV (1992), Chrono Trigger (1995), and Paper Mario (2000) as examples. I’ll add Valkyrie Profile (2000) as my own input. I wrote in the comments that Video Game Collector #9 has a big feature on the Sega Saturn, where they point out that the last 5 games released on the system in 1998 are the most coveted — namely Panzer Dragoon Saga, Shining Force III, Magic Knight Rayearth, Burning Rangers, and House of the Dead. This isn’t a coincidence, folks.

Atlus, NIS America, and SNK are pumping out a last round of high-quality niche titles including Baroque, Mana Khemia, and a surprisingly large number of budget-priced fighter compilations. These are all sure to have at least a steady demand over the next few years.

Another punter in the comments writes, “hey dummy, by telling people to save these titles you are effectively making them worth less because more people will have them….sigh.” Frankly, the small number of collectors that see any blog like this are not going to make any dent in the sales numbers, so enjoy the tip! You might thank us in a few years.

The blog over at VideoGamePriceCharts.com has their predictions up for valuable games in 2008.

I especially agree with the March forecast:

March
Super Smash Bros for Nintendo 64 will drop in price in March or soon after. The price of Smash Bros has already increased quite a bit in the last few months to around $30 in January. Everyone is wanting to play Smash Bros before Brawl comes out on Wii. But after it does the price will come back down. There are also rumors Smash Bros will be released on virtual console right when Brawl comes out. Both of these will drop Smash Bros prices.

Gamestop already jacked the price of a used copy of Melee to $5 over MSRP at $34.99. The only thing that is keeping the price of this game in check is that it’s still in print (7 years later) and can still be found at places like Amazon new for $27.99. But even that, I think, won’t suppress a price spike come March.

Also watch Nintendo Wavebirds come March. They’re already scarce, but they’re going to hit fever pitch once people get tired of dragging their Wii Classic Controller around on a Wiimote leash.

I somewhat disagree with April’s forecast:

April
Grand Theft Auto games will increase in price. This one might be off by a bit because GTA IV doesn’t have a confirmed release date. But when it does I expect some people to start buying the old GTA games so they can have some Grand Theft Auto fun before IV’s release and after they have beaten it. I also think Xbox GTA games will increase the most.

Yes, technically, the Grand Theft Auto games may go up in price, but not by much, in my opinion. This series was as mass-produced as a video game series can get, and all of the PS2 GTA games hit the bargain bin long ago. I think there’s plenty of supply to satiate any demand that may come.

Here’s what they said for June:

June
Metal Gear Solid games will increase in price. I think all Metal Gear games will increase in price when Metal Gear Solid 4 is released this summer. People will want to complete the whole story. The only exception is Metal Gear Solid the original for Playstation 1. It has already increased in price quite a lot in the past 4-5 months and I think it has room to go back down. Metal Gear Solid 2 Substance will be the most valuable because it is the hardest to find already.

Unfortunately, Konami has already preempted this demand and thrown a wrench into JJ’s predictions by announcing the Metal Gear Solid Essentials Collection to release in March. Three of the best games to ever hit the Playstation — Metal Gear Solid, Metal Gear Solid 2: Substance, and Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence — make an incredible deal at $30. Unfortunately though, I forsee Substance and Subsistence tanking in price due to the reprint, except for maybe sealed copies.

Here’s my favorite prediction for the year:

September - Random Prediction of the Year
YourSelf Fitness will increase in price. Your thinking to yourself (haha) “what game is that?”. Its a work out game for Playstation 2 and Xbox. I think WiiFit will become very popular and show people that they can use some video games to get a work out. Yourself Fitness will get the benefits of this. Plus it has not sold well so far so the price could increase a lot without much increase in demand.

I like this… it shows some good thinking on JJ’s part. Yourself Fitness is a somewhat obscure game that has managed to retain a value in the $20 range for both Xbox and PS2 versions, simply by virtue of being practically the only exercise “game” for modern consoles (with the exception of maybe Eyetoy Kinetic for PS2).

It’s the same reason Blast Lacrosse is a valuable game for the PS1 — it’s such a niche title that there are no other lacrosse games to compete with it.

Furthermore, Yourself Fitness is going to fill a void for PS2 and Xbox 360 owners who are envying their WiiFit owning friends. After all, WiiFit isn’t coming to other consoles. I predict that once other developers figure this out, we’re going to see a flood of copycats, just like after the success of Brain Age on the DS.

I’ve heard the argument many times that video games are not a good investment. Well, for the most part, that statement is true. Most titles lose value over time. Even RPGs lose value about 50% of the time — Video Game Price Charts has the empirical data. What are my bets for the titles you should be looking out for? Here goes:

• Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence — MGS is an eternally popular series with a hardcore fan base. This one looks all set to follow Metal Gear Solid 2: Substance in terms of high demand for a relatively low print title.
• Grandia III — Used copies are already fetching over $30 on eBay. There was no European release for Grandia III, which is pushing a lot of the demand. If you do flip one of these, be prepared to ship to Europe.
• Valkyrie Profile: Lenneth — The original Valkyrie Profile for the PS1 is notorious for being the most valuable title on the console, often tying with Suikoden II. While the Lenneth re-release sold much better, demand seems to be once again on the rise. New copies have gotten as much as $60 on eBay. Valkyrie Profile 2: Simeria doesn’t currently seem to be following in demand (hmm, could it be because it was frustrating as hell?), but it may be worth picking up as an investment since it’s only $16.96 on clearance at Circuit City right now.

The common thread with all 3 titles — if you haven’t guessed it yet — is that all 3 went out of print this year, which means that new copies are disappearing off store shelves and are nowhere to be found online.